One year has passed under the premiership of
Narendra Modi, and, to the disappointment of his prophetic opponents,
India has not collapsed into a fiery orgy of violence, death, and
backwardness. India has not arisen to the glorious and seemingly
inevitable paradise that Modi's fervent endorsers promised either.
Narendra
Damodardas Modi, the 15th Prime Minister of the Republic of India, it
seems, is, like his 14 predecessors and certainly like all his
successors, a man who fills proud optimism in the hearts of some, and
bitter scorn in the hearts of others - neither of which is unjustified
if one studies Modi's first year in power - a year filled with progress
and retardations, order and chaos, great leaps forward, and great leaps
back.
Narendra Modi stands to either be one of the greatest and
most respected Prime Ministers in Indian history, or another loud
mouthed demagogue who shall be relegated to the dustbin of history -
labelled a failed experiment in Indian politics.
Regardless, Modi's first year has been anything but dull.
Narendra Modi's first year has been a colourful mixture of Modi
planting the seeds of great change in India, and Modi harvesting the
planted crops of the former Congress government. He hasn't made an overt
effort to distinguish between the two, but the seeds he has planted
will yield even greater fruits for India when the time comes.
The
most noticeable success of Narendra Modi's first year has been the
immense progress India has made in foreign relations. The recently
concluded Hanover Messe is, by far, Modi's most impressive achievement -
where India, as host country, pitched itself to foreign investors as
the ideal manufacturing hub for a wide variety of products - from space
to textiles.
The seeds he has planted will yield even greater fruits for India when the time comes.
This
is of course in tandem with Modi's Make in India campaign - an
ambitious vision to transform India into a manufacturing behemoth that
can rival China. Although there are several imperfections in Modi's Make
in India vision - such as the point raised by Dr. Raghuram Rajan that
emulating a Chinese growth model may not work the same way for India as
it did China - the fact that he envisioned it was more than enough to
attract valuable foreign capital.
In the realm of international
politics too Modi is becoming a giant to be reckoned with, having earned
the respect of Barack Obama (who personally
penned Modi's profile in the TIME 100 list this year and called him India's
"reformer-in-chief").
His state visits to the East Asian tiger economies has also been
greatly productive and has opened several avenues for FDI to pour into
India.
India has earned greater respect under Modi, and Modi
himself commands a fair deal of respect as not just a regional leader,
but a world leader.
Economic growth has been stable and rose by
nearly three percentage points between Modi's inauguration and the next
financial quarter, and Modi's strategy of channelling FDI into
manufacturing has not yet failed him despite the warnings of the central
bank. All of this can be credited to the fact that Modi is the first
Prime Minister since Indira Gandhi to have successfully tied his cabinet
to a political leash.
Where Modi failed
It is important to
understand that while Narendra Modi will arguably be the greatest Prime
Minister of this decade, his government will be one of the
worst.
While Narendra Modi's vision will lead India to new realms of
prosperity, his government's backwardness and conservatism will only
pull his vision down into the mud.
Why? Because Narendra Modi's
government is not one built on technocratic grounds, but political ones.
In other words, his cabinet is not made up of entirely qualified
ministers, but merely politically strategic ones - people who will let
him carry out his great reforms without interfering and, most
importantly, without opposing him. This trend will only continue, as it
has with
Smriti Irani, an under-qualified but politically strategic member of Modi's cabinet who will never be a contrarian to Modi.
Modi's one man show control of his government this past year has been a
double edged sword, because there's only so much a one man army can do before breaking down
To
talk about his economic performance would require another piece at
another time, but considering that both of Dr. Manmohan Singh's first
years as Prime Minister were more economically progressive than Modi's
first year speaks volumes. Modi's supporters believe that he cannot work
magic in just a year. Well, such generous time considerations were
never given to Dr. Singh.
"It
seems that only Dr. Manmohan Singh is a robot for not speaking up on
important issues, while Narendra Modi is wise and contemplating for his
silence."
Modi failed to speak up against increasing state
censorship, did not address the question of net neutrality adequately,
did not speak on the security threats posed to India by the Naxals this
year, failed to advance basic rural programs for food security and
women's safety despite launching ambitious rural finance programs,
continuously ignored the valuable advice of the RBI governor with
regards to investment policy, and has been silent about
institutionalising a strong Lokpal system in India despite election
promises to do the same in a matter of months. It seems that only Dr.
Manmohan Singh is a robot for not speaking up on important issues, while
Narendra Modi is wise and contemplating for his silence.
Narendra
Modi's greatest failure as Prime Minister after one year, however, is
that he cannot speak up against visible injustice and growing religious
tension for fear of upsetting his mostly Hindu, mostly North Indian, and
mostly male supporters. From the issue of forced conversions by Hindus
and Christians, to the question of the Bajrang Dal's growing violence
against other faiths, Modi chose to brush it all under one brief
statement that promised his government's dedication to secularism.
Nobody
can blame him. Very few politicians of his experience and calibre will
do something as stupid as cracking down on the Bajrang Dal's unlawful
activities after seeking campaigning help from them during the
elections. Modi's political acumen is thus both a booster and a handicap
to him, because he's too smart to choose the right thing over the most
practical thing, which is nothing to be proud of.
A flawed messiah and a great capitalist
In
many ways, Narendra Modi is the great Indian capitalist - a man willing
to put everything on the line to watch Indian wealth grow, but not ready
to accept that there are several dangerous consequences of rapid growth
- such as income inequality, religious tensions between richer
religious communities and poorer religious communities and the rabid
advance of corporate influence in politics.
"Narendra
Modi is a secular and liberal Prime Minister carrying the expectations
of religious fanatics and conservatives on his shoulders."
Like
all capitalists, Narendra Modi sees the ultimate profit - in this case,
prosperity for India - as being more important than the gruelling and
often difficult decisions that must be taken to reach that profit. To
him, the net gain from passing a draconian land acquisition law is
greater than the suffering of the farmers that will lose their land to
satisfy someone else's model of "development".
And just as every
other capitalist does, Narendra Modi will reach a fork in the road,
where he must decide if he will choose the path that benefits the
economy, or the people who are dependent on the economy. Because at the
end of the day, a starving farmer on the verge of killing himself cares
little for reforms that will take decades to come to fruition and will
mostly benefit the affluent.
Narendra Modi is a secular and
liberal Prime Minister carrying the expectations of religious fanatics
and conservatives on his shoulders. His is a great burden to bear, and
despite his imperfections, he is India's best hope for meaningful
change.
Narendra Modi is essentially a flawed messiah - he shall
deliver India to great progress, but India shall stumble along the way.
In my book, stumbling along is far better than not moving at all.