With a newly aggressive Congress in Gujarat and the disaffection
among rural communities in the State, the ruling BJP has a real contest
on its hands in the 2012 Assembly elections.
The political elite of Gujarat have already set the wheels in motion for
the State Assembly elections scheduled in December 2012. Both the
national parties, the ruling BJP and the Congress, have started
grassroots mobilisation, and their leaders have intensified verbal duels
at various levels. Both have completed the first round of
constituency-wise reorientation after the new delimitation of seats. Out
of a total of 182 constituencies, at least 60 constituencies have
either been redrawn or turned into reserved or de-reserved categories as
a result of the delimitation. Such alterations in nearly one-third of
constituencies have posed new challenges for both parties.
Significantly, some senior Ministers holding important portfolios like
Finance, Revenue and Urban Development in the State government, as well
as the BJP State president, have been affected by the new delimitation
of constituencies. All of them have had to relocate themselves and come
to terms with new demographic equations. In the light of this, Chief
Minister Narendra Modi undertook and recently completed a
constituency-wise assessment to analyse the caste-class composition of
voters. This is an indication that he intends to micro-manage the
party's planning for the third Assembly election under his leadership.
He has already declared his intention to win 151 of the 182 seats and
create a milestone in Gujarat's political history.
Tall order
However, current predictions are that it would be a tall order for him
and the BJP to surpass their own earlier record of winning 127 seats in
2002, and 117 seats in the 2007 Assembly elections, even in the
likelihood of his winning a third term.
While the delimitation is one challenge, three other factors can
frustrate Mr. Modi's plans of achieving the record numbers he is
dreaming about. The first is the rejuvenation of the Congress party in
Gujarat. In the last one year, the Congress has become proactive in the
State and through various ‘yatras' and campaigns it has established new
links with the people. The party's new aggressiveness is visible at many
levels — in the Assembly; in university campuses; in the local media.
No doubt it is still far from putting in the shade Mr. Modi's
manoeuvrings and theatricals but the present leadership has been
certainly trying to join battle with the Chief Minister on every count.
Just a few weeks ago, the Congress won the by-election in Mansa, a
constituency contiguous with the capital Gandhinagar, by more than 8,000
votes. As Mansa was earlier represented by a senior BJP leader and the
Speaker of the Gujarat Assembly, it was a rude shock for the ruling
party.
The Congress leadership has also joined hands, though on a limited
scale, with grassroots struggles carried out by farmers and tribals to
protect their rights over local natural resources. At another level,
recently, it represented the case of cotton farmers of Saurashtra and
mainland Gujarat to the Central Government and succeeded in getting the
ban on cotton export lifted. Although the Congress leadership hardly
takes up issues related to landless labour or marginal farmers, its
support base among big and middle farmers has become stronger in recent
times. Realising the growing discontent among the upper sections of
farmers, the State BJP president undertook a “Kisan Yatra” but was
unable to get a positive response even in his own area in Saurashtra or
from his own community of Patidars, the dominant caste in Gujarat
society.
The second factor is widespread disaffection among poor rural
communities such as pastoralists, fishworkers and labourers who depend
heavily on common property resources. In the name of “development” and
to project himself as “Vikas Purush,” Chief Minister Modi has handed
vast tracts of coastal land and pasture land to big industrial houses.
Similarly, water bodies in a number of districts in Saurashtra and
Kutch, including the creeks that punctuate the coast, have been taken
over by big industries, either legally or surreptitiously. It is common
knowledge that pastoralists and fisherfolk have enjoyed traditional
rights over such natural resources for their livelihood. They now feel
deprived and distressed. Though no organised struggle has taken root,
except the farmers' struggle against the Nirma cement plant in coastal
Saurashtra, many villages of Kutch and Saurashtra have knocked the doors
of the Gujarat High Court for justice. Their cases are pending before
the court.
Perceiving the growing resentment among pastoralists, the Modi
government recently announced a plan to develop pasture lands in the
first phase of the coming monsoon. But leaders of the Rabaris and
Bharwards — cowherds and shepherds — have called it a purely cosmetic
plan. Even the Gujarati media have termed it a gimmick by the Modi
government.
Mr. Modi's personality, specifically the authoritarian
and autocratic streak in him, is the third factor that can foil not only
his plan to capture 151 seats in the 2012 election but may even reduce
the BJP's strength in the Gujarat Assembly. His style has seen some
sangh parivar outfits, mainly the VHP and the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh,
distancing themselves from the present leadership. Two former BJP Chief
Ministers, Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta, have expressed their
displeasure and disagreement with him on public platforms, either openly
or metaphorically. Local BJP leaders such as Kanubhai Kalsaria have
raised the banner of revolt against Mr. Modi's development agenda in the
last two years, and led the successful farmers' movement against the
Nirma cement plant. In spite of his open revolt, the BJP leadership has
not been able to expel him from the party or initiate disciplinary
action against him. Even as the RSS headquarters supports Mr. Modi and
may project him for national leadership, local RSS leaders and workers
have been resentful and may not throw themselves into Mr. Modi's
re-election campaign.
While all the three factors could play a negative role in the coming
elections, Mr. Modi's development agenda makes him a hero in the eyes of
the powerful and ever-expanding middle class of Gujarat, which is also
magnetically attracted to his style that puts off others including his
own partymen. Earlier, the middle class was made up of the upper and
middle castes but with rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, the
ever-growing middle class means a combination of the upper, middle, OBC
and Dalit communities in Gujarat.
The middle class factor
To make his appeal more attractive to this broadening middle class, Mr.
Modi who started with the Hindutva plank added ‘Golden Gujarat' aimed at
pandering to Gujarati parochialism, and market-oriented “development”
to his plans and propaganda. Such a mix of three messages has granted
him phenomenal popularity among the middle class in the State; with its
unconditional support, he equates himself with Gujarat and any criticism
against his actions is perceived as criticism of Gujarat and Gujaratis.
It is noteworthy that while the Hindu middle class does not constitute
the majority of Gujarat's population, its social composition coupled
with the State's human geography give its members a decisive say in the
urban and rural areas of Gujarat.
There is no one in the Congress leadership who holds comparable
attraction for the middle class, or enjoys its confidence in the same
way. Also, compared to the BJP's deep penetration in local power
structures — the panchayats, city municipal corporations, the extensive
cooperative networks or educational institutions — the Congress has
limited influence. Neither is the Congress articulate enough to change
the terms of the debate set by Mr. Modi. The party has not been able to
question the development model or propose alternatives or bring up
issues of justice for the victims of the 2002 carnage. Nor does it have
influence with the Gujarati diaspora which is campaigning relentlessly
but unsuccessfully to get Mr. Modi a U.S. visa and validating his
non-inclusive development model in the western world. Yet, with its
recent burst of energy in the State, the Congress may improve its
performance in the next Assembly elections. Still it does seem unlikely
that it will be able to dislodge the BJP from power.
It is certain that after the 2012 Assembly elections, Mr. Modi will
start focussing on his next challenge, the 2014 national elections.
Whether the national middle class would extend wholehearted support to
him and establish him as a national leader is an open question.
(The writer is a leading Ahmedabad-based sociologist.)
curtsy-The Hindu
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